# Three- Level Model Assessment of Potential Scenarios of the Shelter Object Transformation into an Ecologically Safe System Based on Global Factor

V. V. Derenhovskyi, I. S. Skiter

Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants,
NAS of Ukraine, 36a, Kirova st., Chornobyl, 07270, Ukraine

DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.22.1.5

### Abstract

The paper presents research related to the analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system. Despite the long lifetime of the New Safe Confinement (NSC), which is 100 years, the presence of transuranic elements in fuel-containing materials (FCM) will pose a threat to the environment for many thousands of years. This indicates that the problem of choosing scenarios for further transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system remains relevant even after the commissioning of the NSC and requires special research. Among the tasks of analysis of potential scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system after the commissioning of the NSC are: identification and analysis of factors influencing the choice of scenarios for the transformation of the SO; development of a methodology for comparative analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system; comparative analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system and the choice of the best one for implementation. The parameters of scenario evaluation and requirements for their submission are defined. An algorithm for building a model for estimating scenarios based on factorial- indicator sets has been developed. A model for increasing the level of consistency of pairwise comparisons of alternatives in determining the global criterion of the value of scenarios is proposed. A three- level scenario assessment model has been created. The correction of the method of analysis of hierarchies for the purpose of formation of the coordinated matrices of pairwise comparisons of indicators in separate factors and the general coordinated matrix of factors comparisons is proposed. The developed model makes it possible to determine the global values of scenarios on the basis of factor- indicator estimates. The use of the proposed methodology allows us to streamline, algorithmize and adjust the procedure of expert evaluation of qualitatively and quantitatively heterogeneous factors and improve the quality of the results to form a decision- making process to transform the SO into an ecologically safe system.

Keywords: scenario analysis, Shelter object, complex structural type system, factor- indicator model, level of consistency adjustment, global value criterion.

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Published
2022-06-30

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