Three- Level Model Assessment of Potential Scenarios of the Shelter Object Transformation into an Ecologically Safe System Based on Global Factor

V. V. Derenhovskyi, I. S. Skiter

Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants,
NAS of Ukraine, 36a, Kirova st., Chornobyl, 07270, Ukraine

DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.22.1.5

Abstract

The paper presents research related to the analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system. Despite the long lifetime of the New Safe Confinement (NSC), which is 100 years, the presence of transuranic elements in fuel-containing materials (FCM) will pose a threat to the environment for many thousands of years. This indicates that the problem of choosing scenarios for further transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system remains relevant even after the commissioning of the NSC and requires special research. Among the tasks of analysis of potential scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system after the commissioning of the NSC are: identification and analysis of factors influencing the choice of scenarios for the transformation of the SO; development of a methodology for comparative analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system; comparative analysis of scenarios for the transformation of the SO into an ecologically safe system and the choice of the best one for implementation. The parameters of scenario evaluation and requirements for their submission are defined. An algorithm for building a model for estimating scenarios based on factorial- indicator sets has been developed. A model for increasing the level of consistency of pairwise comparisons of alternatives in determining the global criterion of the value of scenarios is proposed. A three- level scenario assessment model has been created. The correction of the method of analysis of hierarchies for the purpose of formation of the coordinated matrices of pairwise comparisons of indicators in separate factors and the general coordinated matrix of factors comparisons is proposed. The developed model makes it possible to determine the global values of scenarios on the basis of factor- indicator estimates. The use of the proposed methodology allows us to streamline, algorithmize and adjust the procedure of expert evaluation of qualitatively and quantitatively heterogeneous factors and improve the quality of the results to form a decision- making process to transform the SO into an ecologically safe system.

Keywords: scenario analysis, Shelter object, complex structural type system, factor- indicator model, level of consistency adjustment, global value criterion.

References

1. Law of Ukraine “On General Principles of Further Operation and Decommissioning of the Chornobyl NPP and Transformation of the Destroyed Fourth Power Unit of this NPP into an Environmentally Safe System”. Vidomosti Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy [Bulletin of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine], 1999, no. 4, art. 33. (in Ukr.)

2. Law of Ukraine “On the national program of decommissioning of the Chornobyl NPP and transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system”, no. 886VI dated 15.01.2009. Vidomosti Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy [Bulletin of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine], 2009, no. 24, art. 300. Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show/886–17#Text. (in Ukr.)

3. Resolution of the Presidium of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine no. 141 dated 16.05.2018.
ISSN 2311-8253 Nuclear Power and the Environment № 1 (23) 202254 54
В. В. Деренговський, І. С. Скітер

4. Svierchkov S. F., Stelmakh D. A., Shumilova L. Ye. (2017) [Transformation of the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system: relevance of the recommended course of action]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 29, pp. 62–68. (in Ukr.)

5. Krukovsky P. G., Metel M. A., Sklyarenko D. I. (2019). Novyi bezopasnyi konfaynment Chernobyl’skoy AES (raschetno‑ eksperimental’nyi analiz pri proyektirovanii i ekspluatatsii) [New Safe Confinement of the Chernobyl NPP (calculation and experimental analysis in design and operation)]. Chornobyl: ISP NPP, NAS of Ukraine, 300 p. (in Rus.)

6. Vysotskyi Ye. D., Sushchenko K. О., Godun R. L. (2020). Expert assessment of the current criticality level of clusters of fuel-containing materials after the New Safe Confinement installing. Nuclear Power and the Environment, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 49–56. doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.20.1.6. (in Rus.)

7. Krasnov  V.  O., Nosovskyi  A.  V., Rudko  V.  M., Shcherbin V. M. (2016). Obiekt “Ukryttya”: 30 rokiv pislia avariyi [Shelter object: 30 years after the accident]. Chornobyl: ISP NPP, NAS of Ukraine, 512 p. (in Ukr.)

8. Batiy V. G., Yehorov V. V., Rudko V. M., Shcherbin V. M. (2015). [Criteria for the Shelter object transformation into an ecologically safe system]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 24, pp. 85–91. (in Ukr.)

9. Balan O. V., Batiy V. G., Glebkin S. I., Lagunenko O. S., Pidberezny S. S., Rudko V. M., Shcherbin V. M. (2015). [Fundamental technological solutions for the removal of fuel-containing materials from the upper marks of the Shelter object]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 25, pp. 83–93. (in Ukr.)

10. Balan O. V., Batiy V. G., Pidbereznyi S. S., Rudko V. M. (2018). [Features of removal of fuel-containing materials from the lower marks of the Shelter object]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 31, pp. 76–84. (in Ukr.)

11. Batiy V. G., Paskevych S. A., Rudko V. M., et al. (2016). [The future of Shelter object after the Arch is installed]. Problems of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, no. 15–16, pp. 4–13. (in Ukr.)

12. Batiy V. G., Pidbereznyi S. S., Rudko V. M., Shcherbin V. M. (2016). [Computer simulation during operation and transformation of the Shelter object]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 27, pp. 67–79. (in Ukr.)

13. Derengovskyi V. V., Rudko V. M., Govorov V. A. (2015). [Results of the comparative analysis of “doses — costs —
benefits” for two options for “early” dismantling of unstable structures of the Shelter object]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 25, pp. 94–101. (in Ukr.)

14. Balan O. V., Paskevych S. A., Pashynov M. V., Pidbereznyi S. S., Rudko V. M. (2019). [Conceptual solutions for dismantling unstable structures of the Shelter object]. Problems of Nuclear Power Plants Safety and of Chornobyl, vol. 32, pp. 15–21. (in Ukr.)

15. Rudko V. M., Bambura A. M., Korchagin P. A., Govorov V. O. (2018). [Conceptual solutions for “early” dismantling of unstable structures of the Shelter object]. Proceedings of the III International Conference “Problems of decommissioning of nuclear power facilities and envi‑ ronmental restoration” (INUDECO 18) (April 25–27, 2018, Slavutych). Chernihiv: ChNTU, 2018, pp. 301–309. (in Ukr.)

16. Zgurovsky M. Z., Pavlov A. A. (2014). Prinyatiye resheniy v setevykh sistemakh s ogranichennymi resursami [Decision making in network systems with limited resources]. Kyiv: Naukova Dumka, 573 p. (in Rus.)

17. Shtankevych O. S. (2012). [Multi-criteria choice in conditions of incompleteness and poor consistency of expert assessments]. Collection of scientific works SWorld. Proceedings of the International Scientific‑ Practical Confer‑ ence “Prospective innovations in science, education, pro‑ duction and transport 2012” (Odesa, 2012), vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 50–59. (in Ukr.)

18. Pavlov A. A., Lisetsky T. N. (2012). [The use of a modified method of analysis of hierarchies in decision- making in hierarchical planning]. Proceedings of the All‑ Ukrainian scientific‑ practical conference Information control systems and technologies (IUST‑Odesa 2012) (Oc‑ tober 17–18, 2012). Odesa- Sumy: Papyrus Printing House LLC, p. 130. (in Rus.)

19. Mashkov O. A., Kosenko V. R. (2010). [Adoption of management decisions in complex organizational systems in terms of system approach (part 1) (introduction)]. Collec‑ tion of scientific works of the Institute of Modeling Problems in Energy named after G. Ye. Pukhov of the NAS of Ukraine, vol. 55, pp. 131–148. (in Ukr.)

20. Derengovskyi V. V. (2019). Udoskonalenyi metod baga‑ tokryterialnogo analizu ekologichnoi bezpeky obiektiv iz radiatsiino‑ yadernymy tehnologiiamy [The improved method of multicriteria analysis of environmental safety of objects with radiation and nuclear technologies] (PhD Dissertation). Chornobyl: ISP NPP, NAS of Ukraine, 24 p. (in Ukr.)

21. In Choi, Dukpa Kim, Yun Jung Kim, Noh- Sun Kwark (2018). A multilevel factor model: Identification, asymptotic theory and applications. Journal of Applied Econo‑ metrics, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 1–19. doi.org/10.1002/jae.2611.

22. Daniel J., Naderpour M., Lin C.-T. (2018). A fuzzy multi- layer assessment method for EFQM. IEEE Trans‑ actions on Fuzzy Systems, vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 1252–1262.
doi.org/10.1109/TFUZZ.2018.2874019.

23. Tzeng G.-H., Shen K.-Y. (2017). New concepts and trends of hybrid multiple criteria decision making. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 362 p.

24. Skeeter I. S., Margasov D. V., Sakhno E. Yu. (2015). Development of a model and modification of the method of hierarchy analysis to assess the level of energy efficiency. Eastern European Journal of Advanced Technology, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 26–32.

25. Skiter I., Vtornikova E. (2018). Development of the matrix material selection algorithm for immobilization of transurane elements using the modified method of analysis of hierarchies. Nuclear and Radiation Safety, no. 2, pp. 36–42.

26. Saaty T. L.; Andreichenkov A. V. (sc. ed.) (2008). Prinyatiye resheniy pri zavisimostyakh i obratnykh svyazyakh: anali‑ ticheskiye seti [Dependence and feedback decision making: analytical networks]. Moscow: LKI Publishing House, 360 p. (in Russ.)

27. Saaty T. (2017). Mathematics of the brain: generalization from Eigen vectors to eigen functions. J Psychol Cognition, vol. 2, pр. 113–122. 28. Kurennykh A. E., Osipov V. P., Posadskyi A. I., Sudakov V. A. (2018). On increasing the consistency index of the matrix of pairwise comparisons in decision support systems. Preprints of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Math‑ ematics, vol. 196, 16 p.

Full Text (PDF)